New Hampshire Primary. What will happen?

In less than an hour the first votes will begin coming in from the the New Hampshire Primary.  Former Governor Mitt Romney at last check is still the front runner polling at about 37%.  His nearest competitors Ron Paul and Jon Huntsman are polling at 17% and 14% respectively.  Romney will win the New Hampshire primary, baring some sort of act of God.  The amount that Romney wins by will be a strong indicator for how well his campaign truly is.  If he were to win again with only 25% of vote, like in Iowa, than the win is really a lose.  Romney winning by 30%, his second place finish in 2008, would also be pretty bad for the governor.  Everyone from David Axelrod to Newt Gingrich would be able to spin that as proof that Romney really doesn’t have broad support in the country.  Romney has got to win with about 37-40% to really be able to call it a win.

The other candidate that has been receiving a lot of attention, mostly from the media, is former ambassador and Governor Jon Huntsman.  Huntsman has been making a mad dash to try and solidify votes in the granite state and pull off a big win.  This seems increasingly unlikely.  Huntsman has certainly seen a bump in his numbers the past couple of days, but he is still behind Ron Paul in a state that he has practically lived in.  Even if he were to beat Paul he has no infrastructure in any other state to speak of.  Huntsman’s strategy is either win or bust.  New Hampshire has been a state that has turned in serious upsets, so it would not be unprecedented if Huntsman were to do well.

The biggest loser in New Hampshire is going to be Rick Santorum.  Aside from Huntsman Santorum has spent the most time in the state.  Yet, he seems destined to do pretty terrible.  This will take away from this new status as the real alternative to Mitt Romney.  The senator like Perry and Gingrich will be looking to South Carolina as their saving grace.

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