Porkins Policy ReviewAround 18% of the Iowa Caucus vote is already in.
Rep. Ron Paul 24%
Gov. Mitt Romney 22%
Sen. Rick Santorum 23
Speaker Newt Gingrich 13%
Gov. Rick Perry 10%
Rep. Michelle Bachmann 6%
Gov. Jon Huntsman 1%
A Reuters exclusive reports that Al Qaeda, the Afghan Taliban and the Pakistan Taliban are engaged in talks to figure out the direction of the militant movement. They have also reported that there is a tremendous amount of the infighting within the TTP (Pakistan Taliban). Reuters reports that long standing feud between the head of the TTP Hakimullah Mehsud, and his deputy, Wali-ur-Rehman, have now reached fever pitch. They cite sources as saying that Rehman has ordered militant fighters to assassinate Meshud. While Meshud claims that Rehman has received money from the Indian government.
This all come amid reports that “secret” talks with the TTP and the Pakistan security agencies. The talks are supposedly reaching a crucial stage.
The memogate scandal in Pakistan enters into another phase with the Parliamentary Committee on National Security investigating what really happened. The ISI chief Lt. General Ahmad Shuja Pasha and former ambassador to Washington Husain Haqqani have been called to testify. The panel has also called for business man Mansoor Ijaz to come and answer questions. Ijaz has been at the center of the whole affair. He has stated that he was the individual who delivered the message to the United States. Memogate has helped plunge Pakistani American relations to an all time low, galvanized the ever growing opposition to the PPP , and further increased tensions between the civilian government and the military.
The Taliban will open up a political office in Qatar. This is the first step in the long process of negotiating an end to fighting in Afghanistan. The Taliban will now have a place from which to negotiate with out the fear of being arrested or assassinated by NATO or the Afghans. This will also cut down on imposters posing as Taliban negotiators. Imposters have infiltrated high level secret talks with the Americans in recent years. It seems as if the Unites States has finally woke up to the fact that the Taliban does not pose a threat to their national security. In exchange for the office in Qatar the Taliban has asked for the release of several detainees in Guantanamo Bay, as well as recognition from the UN that the Taliban is an opposition group. So far the U.S. has not confirmed anything substantive about the Taliban’s demands. Armed conflicts don’t end with fighting though; they end with negotiations. It may be a hard pill for many to swallow, especially here in the U.S., but this is what peace looks like. Neither side is going to achieve victory in this war. We can achieve an end to fighting though, and begin the long process of reconciliation.
PBS Newshour has a reported tonight about Syrian operatives and pro regime elements here in the United States. The operatives send back information on anti Assad activists, who’s families in Syria have been targeted by the feared Syrian air force intelligence the Mukhabarat. Families have been beaten and attacked, and in many cases disappeared. This comes amid calls by the Arab League for an emergency meeting to deal with the Syrian crisis.
The new “peace talks” taking place in Jordan between the Palestinians and Israelis should not be seen as a breakthrough. Instead, they should be viewed with a huge grain of salt. As reported in the BBC
“Both Israeli and Palestinian officials did nothing to raise expectations ahead of the meeting, reports the BBC’s Kevin Connolly in Jerusalem, and there was never a point in the evening where it felt that they would be exceeded.
The priority for both sides will be to avoid blame if the process cannot be restarted, he adds.”
Senior political analyst for Al Jazeera, Marwan Bishara, also iterated this point, saying that the meetings are just “talks about talks.” He goes on to say that
“The Israelis need it. It seems Abbas needs it for the time being,” he said. “Certainly the Europeans and the Americans need to give the impression that there is a peace process going on. It is a win-win situation for everybody, but a win-win situation that it seems, utterly, will fail.”
And lets not forget that Hamas is nowhere to be found. Even if a peace plan were formalized, which is impossible, Hamas must be a factor in the plan. By leaving them out it will only fracture the Palestinian people further, while ultimately making the peace process moot. It is good that they are sitting down face to face talking. But until Hamas is allowed into the negotiation process, and the Israelis halt the settlement building, nothing will really happen. In the following days and weeks except a whole lot of diplomatic speak about the “frank” discussions between Israeli envoy Yitzhak Molcho, and Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat.
Well now the campaign can officially start. It seems as if the GOP campaign has been dragging on forever; well this Tuesday it will begin to kick into high gear with the Iowa caucus. With only 24 hours to go the last minute politicking is in full swing. The latest RealClearPolitics average has Romney at 22.8%, Paul at 21.5%, and Santorum at 16.3%. As of now these represent the three most serious competitors in the Iowa caucus. Gingrich, who surged to the front of the pack, has seen his support wane in recents weeks. He now holds on to fourth place at around 13.7% and is continuing to drop lower and lower. Let’s look at what the possible out comes are for the three competitors.
Romney: A first place win for the former governor would be tremendous or his chances of winning the nomination. If Romney wins he will go into New Hampshire with a lot of momentum. The first primary state has been the governors main focus so far, and a win in both states could lock up the nomination process. A recent email from a top advisor sums up the campaigns feelings on tomorrows caucus, “If we win, it’s fantastic. If Santorum wins and we are second, it’s good. If Paul wins and we are second, it’s great. Any of the likely outcomes is positive for us.” The only way Romney can lose is by coming in third place, which seems unlikely at this point.
Paul: Texas congressman Ron Paul has been viewed as the kingmaker in Iowa by many in the media; this view has not been taken up by Porkins Policy Review. If Paul were to win in Iowa it would certainly thrust him to center stage, but where would the campaign go from there? Paul’s chances of doing well in New Hampshire are much slimmer than in the Hawk Eye state. Instead, his focus would turn to the more evangelical South Carolina primary. Let’s face it though Paul will not be win the nomination let alone the presidency. A win or even second place will keep Paul in the race for the foreseeable future. But his numbers most likely will not exceed 10% of the electorate.
Santorum: What do we make of former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum’s huge bump in the polls? The short answer is nothing. This is just the inevitable cycle that has been a mainstay of this election season; Santorum is another not Romney. Every other candidate aside from Huntsman has seen a huge bump followed by a massive plummet back to reality, this is just Santorum’s time. Even if Santorum were to pull of a huge upset and win the caucus he has no infrastructure to speak of. He would suffer the same problems that Gingrich did following his ascent in the polls, lack of staff and more importantly lack of money. The senators time in Iowa has been spent living out of an SUV accompanied by just one advisor. Anyone who thinks Santorum will pull of an upset has been drinking the Kool Aid.
Bottom Line: A win for Paul or Santorum will make the Iowa caucus about as useless an indicator for the presidency as previous years. Either of them wining can be written off as merely evangelicals voicing their support. If Romney wins than thats a sign that the electorate has come to its senses and is ready to accept that he is the most electable candidate. Santorum or Paul wining is almost predictable given the electorate in Iowa. Mitt Romney winning would prove to the GOP that he is in fact the front runner and the best candidate to take on President Obama.
Here we go again. The war of words between the U.S. and Iran just got a bit more heated. Iran has announced that they could block off oil shipments in the Strait of Hormuz if the West applies sanctions to its oil industry. The U.S. shot straight back with this
“Anyone who threatens to disrupt freedom of navigation in an international strait is clearly outside the community of nations: any disruption will not be tolerated,”
“…always ready to counter malevolent actions to ensure freedom of navigation.”
This was a response from US Fifth Fleet spokeswoman Lt Rebecca Rebarich, as quoted in The Guardian. As Dan Murphy of the Christian Science Monitor point out though, closing the Strait is doable but not easy.
All the same this is another ridiculous instance of the total lack of tact and diplomatic nuance from the West, and in particular, the Obama administration. We have got to talk to the Iranians. That is the one and only way that this crisis will be solved. What did the West expect the Iranians to do? If anyone cut off our ability to make money through trade we would do a whole lot more than just cut off access to a trade shipping route. Ratcheting up tensions is not going to get us anywhere. Instead it makes it impossible politically for either side to do anything. The regime in Iran can not back down now to the west now. It would spell disaster and collapse of their hold on power. And if Obama looks even the slightest bit soft of the Islamic Republic he will have to deal with being an appeaser to “terrorists”. So again we are all back to square one with how to deal with the issue of Iran’s nuclear program. And all of this could have been avoided if the West were willing to engage the Iranians, rather than treat them like children.
In the seemingly unending cycle, Israel has announced that it will build 130 new settlements in East Jerusalem. This comes off the heels of increasing hostility between Israel and those in the Occupied territories, and Gaza. Today a former Islamic Jihad fighter was killed in a refugee camp in Gaza. With in the Jewish state the political environment is also becoming increasingly volatile. A growing divide is forming between the ultra orthodox and settler community and the rest of Israel. As described in a recent Foreign Policy article a state within a state is forming in the settler camps popping up all around the West Bank. And just yesterday hundreds gathered in Israel to protest against the harsh treatment of women by those in the ultra orthodox community.
These settlements are a carrot for the radical settler community. In order to keep them quiet and subservient to the right wing government in power, more and more settlements are constructed. Every time the settlers burn a mosque or spit on 8 year old girls for dressing immodestly, they are eventually rewarded with more settlements in East Jerusalem, or more autonomy in the West Bank. Netanyahu is also doing this to make a point to the Palestinians that 2012 is not going to be any different from the previous years; if anything it will be a lot more dangerous and hostile. Israel is close to the brink of very serious problems if this trajectory is continued. Netanyahu clearly has no desire to broker any sort of peace between Israel and the Palestinian people. Instead he prefers to stay the course and heighten tensions with those living in the West Bank and Gaza. And with Fatah and Hamas working hard to broker some sort of unity government deal, Netanyahu is really being pushed into a corner. While another intifada might be to pessimistic, it will be very difficult for Israel to continue on this path in the foreseeable future. The Middle East is changing, albeit slowly, and Israel needs to catch up. They will no longer be top dog in the region, able to do and say whatever pleases them. If Israel wants to continue to be a thriving and stable country, serious change need to take place internally, especially within the political class. Otherwise 2012 is going to be a very bloody year for Palestinians, Israelis, and the Arab world.
The presumed front runner Newt Gingrich will not be on the ballot in his home state of Virginia. Apparently no one else will aside from Gov. Romney and Rep. Paul. In a testament to how unorganized the candidates and this election has been, no other candidates were had the infrastructure within the state to get on the ballot. Due to the strict election laws in Virgina Gingrich won’t even be able to be a write in candidate. This is another roadblock for the Gingrich campaign, which has already been plagued by disorganization. This was supposed to be a litmus test for how far Gingrich has come since becoming the top candidate; he does not come out looking very good. Virginia comes out of this whole fiasco as the biggest loser. They have made themselves irrelevant on Super Tuesday.
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