The ABC News/Yahoo News GOP debate is this Saturday from 9:00-11:00. While not the most ideal time for a debate, it will be the first debate where former speaker Gingrich will really need to hold his own. Having shot up in the polls as the new “Not Mitt” candidate the former Congressman will have to show that he can go all the way. In an election cycle where organization has meant nothing and debate have meant everything; this will prove to be an important step in the nomination process.
Here are my predictions:
Gingrich will come out and do what he has done in the previous debates and take on professorial, and slightly condescending, role for himself. He will display himself as above the fray, and as the only one with any real, serious, and most importantly, different ideas. We can expect him not to attack any of his fellow candidates and instead direct his anger at the media; something he has done in almost every debate. Gingrich has seen some recent attacks against him by other GOP candidates and will need to contend with that on Saturday. Provided that he doesn’t get too bogged down there though he will be alright . When all is said and done everyone will go on about how Newt is the great debater and a real idea man. Inthe end he will come out as both civil, intelligent and the winner.
Former Gov. Mitt Romney this time around will not be able to rely on his front runner status anymore. He will need to go on the attack. This attack will most likely be directed at Gingrich and will probably back fire. Like any other time in the campaign when Romney has come out swinging, he will come across as petty and mean. The image of him as a flip flopper and as someone not to be trusted will most definitely come across to the audience. Romney must also contend with the fact that most in the GOP electorate don’t like him and are enamored with Newt right now. Romney has little to gain and will ultimately lose in this debate.
Texas Rep. Ron Paul is trailing in the polls at third place and for him this debate like all the others is not important. Knowing he cant win the White House, the Congressman has used his campaign and the debates as a platform for his libertarian views. He will likely attack Gingrich as not being a true conservative. He will likely say that we should do away with several Federal agencies. He will likely say that we should not stick our noses into every foreign powers internal affairs. He will get both huge applause and big boos from the crowd.
Governor Rick Perry is more a less done. He is polling at around 7%, and just simply wasn’t ready for prime time. Surely we will have some sort of “oops” moment during the debate coming out of the mouth of the Governor. He doesn’t pose much a threat to anyone aside from his own future political career.
Congresswoman Michele Bachmann now polling at a measly 5% will be of no threat to anyone Peaking way too soon in the cycle, the congresswoman deflated very fast and has not been able to gain back any semblance of front runner status.Gone is the Bachmann of the past who could rouse the whole debate audience to their feet with the line “Mark my words, President Obama will be a one term president.” Like the other also rans, the Congresswoman will simply be on stage, occasionally saying something that no one is really listening to.
Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum warrants even less thought than Rick Perry. Polling at a horrendous 3.5% Santorum will say the following.
1.I am the son of legal immigrants
2.Iran is the most dangerous threat out there and we should bomb it back to the stone age
3.Make a face like he smelled something really bad
SIGH. Then we get to the only sane, intelligent, and moderate candidate running, former Governor of Utah and Ambassador to China, Jon Huntsman. Unfortunately for Mr. Huntsman he is polling at around 2.3% and has no chance of getting elected by the current GOP electorate. This might explain why Huntsman is skipping the debate all together. In any case be sure to follow his daughters on twitter for some of the best political commentary out there.
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