It seems that yet again Speaker Boehner and the House Republicans have dashed the hopes of ending this year with a payroll tax cut extension. Major Garrett has laid out his predictions for what could happen if the next few weeks in a recent National Journal article. My prediction is that this will be another black mark for the Speaker. His idea that this will look bad for the Democrats is not going to work. House GOP members will look ridiculous by not being in favor of a tax cut for the middle class during the holiday season.
We have our first glimpse of Kim Jung-un in action. Attending his fathers funeral today, the twenty something year old looked bewildered and overwlemed. Attempting to control the story North Korea has sealed off the borders. And as the Christian Science Monitor reports, the North is not allowing in any foreign delegations. CSM also reports that South Korea views the unfolding situation as evidence of the North’s instability.
So where is Kim Jung Un? The Dear Leader Kim Jong il is now dead, and has left North So where is the Kim Jung Un? The Dear Leader Kim Jong il is now dead, and has left North Korea to his son. Yet thus far we have neither seen nor heard from him. Understandably so Kim Jong Un is probably suffering from those new dictator jitters. This unpleasant condition is most commonly associated with having to assume power over a repressive closed regime, formerly ruled by your megalomaniac father. For a scenario that must have been well rehearsed, you would think that they would want to get the new guy out there in front of the cameras and kissing babies. Although it shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise that Kim il Un is not out in the lime light just yet.
Until about three years ago no one even knew of the existence of the Kim Jung Il’s youngest son. Since his existence has been made known, the heir apparent has only had two years of training to be ruler. This is greatly contrasted with his father who had over a decade on day to day work within the regime to his son. Yet thus far we have neither seen nor heard from him. Understandably so Kim Jong Un is probably suffering from those new dictator jitters. This unpleasant condition is most commonly associated with having to assume power over a repressive closed regime, formerly ruled by your megalomaniac father. For a scenario that must have been well rehearsed, you would think that they would want to get the new guy out there in front of the cameras and kissing babies. Although it shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise that Kim il Un is not out in the lime light just yet.
Until about three years ago no one even knew of the existence of the Kim Jung Il’s youngest son. Since his existence has been made known, the heir apparent has only had two years of training to be ruler. This is greatly contrasted with his father who had over a decade of day to day experience working within the regime prior to taking over. With such a sparse resume it is a widely held belief that Kim Jong Un’s uncle, Jang Sung Taek, will act as regent; controlling things from behind the scenes. With no one reporting from the country, and very little in the way of diplomatic access, it will be very difficult to really know what is going on inside the country.
Whilst catching up on the Bradley Manning trial one thing kept popping into my mind; the hysteria that enveloped everyone last year when Wikileaks released thousands of diplomatic cables to various news outlets. People of all political persuasions, particularly though on the right, we’re predicting that the U.S. was to become increasingly isolated from the international community. How would we be able to work with the nations that we so clearly criticized in these leaked cables? In the aftermath Secretary Clinton was whisked away on an apology tour for all the nations that we offended. Fortunately Washington was able to avert the Wikileaks scandal by managing to create enough scandal themselves. Following Bradley Manning’s alleged leaking of 250,000 cables to Wikileaks, America has: assassinated two U.S. citizens in Yemen, launched more drone strikes in a few years than President Bush did his whole term, help block Palestinian statehood, practically destroy relations with Pakistan, raise tensions with Iran to a fever pitch, and a myriad of other things too long to post here. Nothing that came out in Wikileaks has led to any serious breakdown in diplomatic relations. Despite the incessant claims that our soldiers would be in danger the Defense Department later confirmed that no one was killed. So this holiday season be sure to remember that Bradley Manning and Wikileaks didn’t ruin Washington’s credibility, Washington managed that just fine on their own. I wonder if locking up Private Bradley Manning for the rest of his life will hinder or help our standing in the international community?
This is the most ludicrous claim floating amongst liberal circles right now. Don’t for a second think that president Obama’s decision to leave Iraq wasn’t political. Yes, president Bush had set a time table in motion that would have seen troops exiting Iraq now, but this is an election year folks, and the president wants to be able to say that he brought the troops home during the 2012 campaign. It’s no an evil conspiracy it’s just politics. That is how the game is played. We unfortunately don’t live in an altruistic world were we do things for the benefit of others. Politicians do things to benefit themselves and their grasp on power. This also extends to democratic leaders in the west who claim to be defenders of freedom and human rights.
Central Asia might be the next to embrace the change that has swept through the Arab world.
Kazakhstan has imposed a three week state of emergency in the oil town of Zhanaozen after clashes broke out between workers and security forces. As The Economist points out, the lack of any mechanism for leadership succession makes the various “Stans” susceptible to instability and regime change.
Earlier this week the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Navi Pillay, released a report that around 5,000 people had died in Syria do far. As government repression increases the armed rebel movement in Syria is fighting back harder and harder. Today, Reuters reported that 27 Syrian soldiers we’re killed by rebels; and Human Rights Watch released a report identifying 74 Syrian commanders who either ordered, authorized, or condoned killings and torture of civilians. The HRW report recommends that the Syrian regime be brought to the ICC for war crimes.
So is 5,000 dead enough to go to the ICC? Ratko Mladic is currently on trial in the The Hague for his alleged ordering of the massacre of 8,000 Bosnian Muslims during the tail end of the war in Yugoslavia. At the rate the Syrian regime is killing its citizens it is only a matter of time before 5,000 becomes 8,000 or 10,000. The simple answer is yes, 5,000 deaths is enough; any state sponsored killing is enough to warrant cause for alarm and reason for criminal prosecution. It would also send a clear message to other autocratic leaders. The problem is in capturing and trying Assad. When Muammar Gaddafi was indicted it only made him more dedicated to crushing the rebellion in Libya. Assad still retains popularity in the country, and would be able to use the security forces as well as the fear of religious unrest to foment more violence. If he was not already a war criminal an ICC indictment would solidify it. The ultimate fear would be civil war, which seems increasingly likely.
There are some bright spots on the horizon though. Russian UN envoy Vitaly Churkin said that the BRICS nations are willing to deploy monitors; and the opposition is beginning to make progress. Only the Syrian people can determine the Syrian future.
It has taken nearly nine years, but the war in Iraq is officially over. But is this mission accomplished?
With close to 5,000 service men killed, 30,000 wounded, and over 100,000 Iraqi’s killed the obvious answer is no. America has succeeded in overthrowing a dictator and helping to develop one of the most corrupt nations in the world. The toppling of Saddam has empowered Iran, and further divided the nation along ethnic and religious lines. The ends does not justify the means. The Arab Spring speaks volumes to the fact that people can bring about change. We are too quick to use military intervention to solve problems. In the coming months I am sure that we will hear more about all the wonderful things that the Iraq war has accomplished; don’t buy into the spin. With thousands of security contractors, and the biggest U.S. embassy ever, we are far from leaving Mesopotamia or accomplishing anything of substance. The idea that the Iraqi people are going to rule their own country is also a fallacy. America is now forever linked to Iraq. Iraqi PM Maliki will be propped up for as long as it is possible. Noes he’s “our guy” in the region.
The most disconcerting aspect of this Middle East debacle is the Presidents lack of acknowledgement of how futile and wrong the war was. This same president said that it was a stupid war, but now talks about the wonderful democracy that we have brought to the Iraqis. Afraid to criticize the military that he now wholeheartedly loves, the president has let down many of his original supporters. What happened to the notion of supporting the troops
but not the war? We are not safer or better off now that Saddam is gone. Obviously those who shed blood and died in Iraq should not be forgotten. They were sent to nation to fight a war that served no purpose, and made no one safer. On the other hand we can’t just roll over and declare success.
Iraq is more dangerous and corrupt than ever before. We are not really leaving the country, instead just minimizing the foot print. Also don’t forget that we are still fighting in Afghanistan. And don’t forget that it is ok to be critical of a war. There is nothing wrong with saying we messed up.
The Associated Press reported that Canadian troops will hand over individuals arrested in Afghanistan to the Americans and not the Afghans. This adds another black mark to the Canadian government when it comes to the treatment of detainees. The Canadian governments treatment and help in prosecuting one of its own citizens, Omar Khadr, on terrorism charges should strike people as abhorrent. The fact that the Khadr was a teenager and is the only child solider ever to be found guilty is even more heinous.
Furthermore, this only delegitimizes the Afghan government further; making them weak in the eyes of its citizens.
Gambian prosecutor Fatima Bensouda will become the new chef prosecutor of the ICC. She will take over from her boss and the current head of the court, Luis Moreno Ocampo, who has shrouded the court in controversy. Ocampo has been criticized for only prosecuting African leaders for war crimes and crimes against humanity. As The Economist points out
All 26 of the suspects publicly indicted by the court have been African; of those in the court’s custody, four are Congolese and one a Rwandan wanted for crimes in Congo.
This marks a huge victory for African nations and people’s. There have been many awful crimes that have been committed by African rulers in the past decade but we need to broaden the scope of the court. Rather than act as a deterrent against committing war crimes; ICC under Ocampo is now viewed as racist and unfair by leaders and people across Africa. How come no one in Israel has been charged with dropping white phosphorus on civilians in Gaza? Why has the Sri Lankan government been spared a serious investigation into war crimes committed in their push to defeat the Tamil Tigers?
International law should not be viewed
as unfair and biased. It makes bad leaders flaunt the law and do as they please. We need to strengthen the power to prosecute bad leaders, while at the same time make sure to prosecute people aside from those residing in Africa.
Porkins Policy Review 