Category Archives: 2012 Election

Caucus predictions

January 2, 2012 – 11:52 am

Well now the campaign can officially start. It seems as if the GOP campaign has been dragging on forever; well this Tuesday it will begin to kick into high gear with the Iowa caucus. With only 24 hours to go the last minute politicking is in full swing. The latest RealClearPolitics average has Romney at 22.8%, Paul at 21.5%, and Santorum at 16.3%. As of now these represent the three most serious competitors in the Iowa caucus. Gingrich, who surged to the front of the pack, has seen his support wane in recents weeks. He now holds on to fourth place at around 13.7% and is continuing to drop lower and lower. Let’s look at what the possible out comes are for the three competitors.

Romney: A first place win for the former governor would be tremendous or his chances of winning the nomination. If Romney wins he will go into New Hampshire with a lot of momentum. The first primary state has been the governors main focus so far, and a win in both states could lock up the nomination process. A recent email from a top advisor sums up the campaigns feelings on tomorrows caucus, “If we win, it’s fantastic. If Santorum wins and we are second, it’s good. If Paul wins and we are second, it’s great. Any of the likely outcomes is positive for us.” The only way Romney can lose is by coming in third place, which seems unlikely at this point.

Paul: Texas congressman Ron Paul has been viewed as the kingmaker in Iowa by many in the media; this view has not been taken up by Porkins Policy Review. If Paul were to win in Iowa it would certainly thrust him to center stage, but where would the campaign go from there? Paul’s chances of doing well in New Hampshire are much slimmer than in the Hawk Eye state. Instead, his focus would turn to the more evangelical South Carolina primary. Let’s face it though Paul will not be win the nomination let alone the presidency. A win or even second place will keep Paul in the race for the foreseeable future. But his numbers most likely will not exceed 10% of the electorate.

Santorum: What do we make of former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum’s huge bump in the polls? The short answer is nothing. This is just the inevitable cycle that has been a mainstay of this election season; Santorum is another not Romney. Every other candidate aside from Huntsman has seen a huge bump followed by a massive plummet back to reality, this is just Santorum’s time. Even if Santorum were to pull of a huge upset and win the caucus he has no infrastructure to speak of. He would suffer the same problems that Gingrich did following his ascent in the polls, lack of staff and more importantly lack of money. The senators time in Iowa has been spent living out of an SUV accompanied by just one advisor. Anyone who thinks Santorum will pull of an upset has been drinking the Kool Aid.

Bottom Line: A win for Paul or Santorum will make the Iowa caucus about as useless an indicator for the presidency as previous years. Either of them wining can be written off as merely evangelicals voicing their support. If Romney wins than thats a sign that the electorate has come to its senses and is ready to accept that he is the most electable candidate. Santorum or Paul wining is almost predictable given the electorate in Iowa. Mitt Romney winning would prove to the GOP that he is in fact the front runner and the best candidate to take on President Obama.

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Paul and Romney only ones on ballot in Vigrinia

December 24, 2011 – 3:01 pm

 

The presumed front runner Newt Gingrich will not be on the ballot in his home state of Virginia.  Apparently no one else will aside from Gov. Romney and Rep. Paul.  In a testament to how unorganized the candidates and this election has been, no other candidates were had the infrastructure within the state to get on the ballot.  Due to the strict election laws in Virgina Gingrich won’t even be able to be a write in candidate.  This is another roadblock for the Gingrich campaign, which has already been plagued by disorganization.  This was supposed to be a litmus test for how far Gingrich has come since becoming the top candidate; he does not come out looking very good.  Virginia comes out of this whole fiasco as the biggest loser.  They have made themselves irrelevant  on Super Tuesday.

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Everyone is a flip flopper.

December 11, 2011 – 10:29 pm

 

Everyone is a flip flopper.  The sooner we understand this the faster we can get on with the complicated process of picking the right political candidate.  One would be hard pressed to find any politician that has not flip flopped or changed opinions on an issue.   Lets stop making this into such a big deal already.

In honor of the new front runner of the GOP presidential election, Newt Gingrich, I thought I would just link an excellent little list of some of his more spectacular foreign policy flip flops.  The list was composed by Uri Friedman and Joshua E. Keating of Foreign Policy magazine.

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Post ABC debate

December 11, 2011 – 4:09 am

I could take the rest of night writing about this debate and what it means for the rest of the election cycle. It being Saturday night instead will keep it short.

The debate was a bit more lively than previous ones. There were some interesting moments, including the first mention of lunar colonies by Mitt Romney. The biggest moment undoubtedly was Romney’s failed attempt to get Gov. Rick Perry to enter into a $10,000 bet. $10,000 roughly equals about three months wages in Iowa.  Governor Romney’s advisers must have been screaming back stage when he picked $10,000 as betting amount.  This will run in the news cycle for weeks to come; everyone from the president to pundits to the candidates will hammer Mitt on this one . In a debate in which Romney had to fight back and gain lost ground he seemed to fall short.

As of right now Gingrich is still the front runner and the man to beat. This is not going to be a simple and easy primary season. This is going to be a long and hard fight.

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Invented Palestine question at Debate devolves

December 11, 2011 – 3:35 am

This exchange warranted a quick post.

The candidates were asked to comment on the recent comments that Speaker Gingrich made about the Palestinian people; what followed one perhaps one of the more inflammatory and idiotic discussions thus far. Rather than call out Newt for making false and racist comments, the candidates debated over if it was ok with Israel to say that.

There was more concern about us speaking for the Israeli government, instead of the fact that the remarks were offensive. Gov. Romney didn’t think it was right to say not because it perpetuates the image of an uncaring
United States, but because it might hurt Bibi. Not even an after thought about the hundreds of thousands of people living under occupation. A people living under the occupation of a people that didn’t exist until 1948.

Some how I don’t see the peace process gaining any ground by abusing the Palestinian people.

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ABC Debate predictions

December 10, 2011 – 1:56 am

The ABC News/Yahoo News GOP debate is this Saturday from 9:00-11:00.  While not the most ideal time for a debate, it will be the first debate where former speaker Gingrich will really need to hold his own.  Having shot up in the polls as the new “Not Mitt” candidate the former Congressman will have to show that he can go all the way.  In an election cycle where organization has meant nothing and debate have meant everything; this will prove to be an important step in the nomination process.

Here are my predictions:

 

Gingrich will come out and do what he has done in the previous debates and take on professorial, and slightly condescending, role for himself.  He will display himself as above the fray, and as the only one with any real, serious, and most importantly, different ideas.  We can expect him not to attack any of his fellow candidates and instead direct his anger at the media; something he has done in almost every debate.  Gingrich has seen some recent attacks against him by other GOP candidates and will need to contend with that on Saturday.  Provided that he doesn’t get too bogged down there though he will be alright .  When all is said and done everyone will go on about how Newt is the great debater and a real idea man.  Inthe end he will come out as both civil, intelligent and the winner.

 

  Former Gov. Mitt Romney this time around will not be able to rely on his front runner status anymore.  He will need to go on the attack.  This attack will most likely be directed at Gingrich and will probably back fire.  Like any other time in the campaign when Romney has come out swinging, he will come across as petty and mean.  The image of him as a flip flopper and as someone not to be trusted will most definitely come across to the audience.  Romney must also contend with the fact that most in the GOP electorate don’t like him and are enamored  with Newt right now.  Romney has little to gain and will ultimately lose  in this debate.

 

 

  Texas Rep. Ron Paul is trailing in the polls at third place and for him this debate like all the others is not important.  Knowing he cant win the White House, the Congressman has used his campaign and the debates as a platform for his libertarian views.  He will likely attack Gingrich as not being a true conservative.  He will likely say that we should do away with several Federal agencies.  He will likely say that we should not stick our noses into every foreign powers internal affairs.  He will get both huge applause and big boos from the crowd.

 

 

 

  Governor Rick Perry is more a less done.  He is polling at around 7%, and just simply wasn’t ready for prime time.  Surely we will have some sort of “oops” moment during the debate coming out of the mouth of the Governor.  He doesn’t pose much a threat to anyone aside from his own future political career.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Congresswoman Michele Bachmann now polling at a measly 5% will be of no threat to anyone  Peaking way too soon in the cycle, the congresswoman deflated very fast and has not been able to gain back any semblance of front runner status.Gone is the Bachmann of the past who could rouse the whole debate audience to their feet with the line “Mark my words, President Obama will be a one term president.”  Like the other also rans, the Congresswoman will simply be on stage, occasionally saying something that no one is really listening to.

 

 

 

 

 

  Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum warrants even less thought than Rick Perry.  Polling at a horrendous 3.5% Santorum will say the following.

1.I am the son of legal immigrants

2.Iran is the most dangerous threat out there and we should bomb it back to the stone age

3.Make a face like he smelled something really bad

 

 

  SIGH.  Then we get to the only sane, intelligent, and moderate candidate running, former Governor of Utah and Ambassador to China, Jon Huntsman.  Unfortunately for Mr. Huntsman he is polling at around 2.3% and has no chance of getting elected by the current GOP electorate.  This might explain why Huntsman is skipping the debate all together.  In any case be sure to follow his daughters on twitter for some of  the best political commentary out there.

 

 

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Newt thinks Palestians are invented

December 10, 2011 – 12:17 am

When asked by The Jewish Channel if he were a Zionist, Presidential candidate Newt Gingrich responded

“Remember, there was no Palestine as a state. It was part of the Ottoman Empire, and I think we’ve had an invented Palestinian people who are in fact Arabs, and who were historically part of the Arab community, and they had a chance to go many places, and for a variety of political reasons we have sustained this war against Israel now since the 1940s, and I think it’s tragic.”

Aside from this being an often used tactic of Zionists like Prof. Alan Dershowitz to deny that the Palestinians exist as a people and nationality, under this definition t would mean that there are no such thing as Syrians, Iraqi’s, Saudis, Algerians, Egyptians, Jordanians, Lebanese,Kuwaitis, Moroccans, Libyans, Bahraini, Yemeni, Omani.  Instead they are all just Arabs.  I guess they all just decied that politically it would make more sense for some of them to live in North Africa some in the Persian Gulf and so on.

Under this idiotic assumption then there is no such thing as an Italian or a Serbian or Finnish person.  There all just Caucasian.  Politically it made more sense for the Finns to live in the north, they are big skiers.  I guess we should have let those silly Africans in Rwanda know that there isn’t any such thing as a Hutu or a Tutsi.  Your just African.  I mean hell, Rwanda was part of the Belgian Empire, and it was populated by a bunch of Africans, and they had a chance to go many places, they just decided on this small land locked nation.

Thanks Professor Newt.

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